我国农村劳动力转移时空分异及趋势预测

Spatial and Temporal Differentiation and Trend Prediction of Rural Labors Transfer in China

为了进一步探明我国农村劳动力转移的演变规律,基于1978—2021年数据对我国农村劳动力转移的空间分布和时序变化进行分析,进而预测农村劳动力转移趋势。研究结果表明,劳动力转移人数和劳动力转移率都表现出显著的空间差异性以及不同年度上的波动性。通过预测可知,在未来的3年内我国农村劳动力转移也将持续下去,在趋势值增长的基础上根据疫情影响而有所浮动,二、三产业在农村剩余劳动力转移中将继续发挥重要作用。因此,我国需要加强劳动力转移的引导与管理,在农村地区积极推进非农产业发展,积极推进以人为核心的城镇化建设。

In order to explore the evolution law of China’s rural labors transfer,the spatial distribution and temporal changes of Chinese rural labors transfer are analyzed,and then the trend of rural labors transfer is predicted based on the data from 1978 to 2021.The results show that the number of labors transfer and labors transfer rate have significant spatial difference and temporal fluctuation.According to the forecast,rural labors transfer will continue,corresponding trend value will increase and float due to the impact of the epidemic in the next three years.The secondary and tertiary industries will play an important and positive role for rural labors transfer.Therefore,we need to strengthen guidance and management of labors transfer,actively promote the development of non-agricultural industries in rural areas,and actively promote people-centered urbanization.