三大增长极对成渝地区双城经济圈的经济溢出影响研究

Research on the Spillover Effects of the Three Growth Poles on the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

通过构建四大经济圈区域间投入—产出模型,对三大增长极与成渝地区双城经济圈的经济外溢性影响进行静态与比较静态分析。结果表明:①珠三角经济圈的区域内产业联系强度最低,长三角经济圈的经济外溢性影响最高,成渝地区双城经济圈的经济被带动能力最强。2012—2017年,四大经济圈的区域内产业联系强度呈不同程度下降,区域间产业联系强度涨跌不一,成渝地区双城经济圈对三大增长极的经济带动作用大幅上升,而三大增长极对成渝地区双城经济圈的经济带动作用大幅下降。②对成渝地区双城经济圈的区域间溢出效应进行来源分解,发现来自三大增长极的外溢性影响对双城经济圈经济增长具有重要作用,但这种影响在5年内出现整体下降。因此,应不断强化地区间政策协同,推动成渝地区市场一体化建设,扩大成渝地区双城经济圈区域内乘数效应产生的经济规模,并提高双城经济圈与三大增长极之间的产业联系强度,进一步推动双城经济圈发展。

This paper constructed a four economic circle inter-regional input-output model to conduct static analysis and comparative static analysis on the economic spillover effects of the three growth poles and the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle.The results showed that:①The Pearl River Delta Economic Circle had the lowest industrial linkage intensity,the Changjiang River Delta Economic Circle had the highest influence coefficient,and the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle had the highest sensitivity coefficient.In addition,the strength of intra-regional industrial links in the four economic circles decreased to varying degrees,and the strength of industrial links between regions fluctuated.The economic driving effect of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle on the three growth poles had been increased significantly,while the economic driving effects of the three growth poles on the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle had dropped significantly.②By decomposing the sources of the inter-regional spillover effects of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle,this paper found that the spillover effects from the three growth poles played an important role in the economic growth of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle,but the effects continued to decline over the five-year period.It was necessary to continuously strengthen inter-regional policy coordination,promote the construction of market integration in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle,and expand the economic scale generated by the multiplier effect.Improve the intensity of industrial links between the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and the other three growth poles,and further promoted the development of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle.