人口城镇化与土地城镇化耦合协调关系及时空演化格局——以四川省18个地级市为例

The Coordination and temporal-spacial evolution pattern between population urbanization and land urbanization——A case study on 18 cities in Sichuan

本文以四川省18个地级市为研究对象,为识别了解该地区人口城镇化与土地城镇化的协调发展、时空演化分布格局,结合18个地级市的实际发展情况,构建评价指标体系;利用耦合协调模型等方法对研究区两者的耦合协调关系进行测算分析,为进一步促进提高两者的协调互动提供实证参考。研究结果表明:18个地级市人口城镇化与土地城镇化的耦合协调性在时间维度上基本表现为上升趋势,但大部分地区两者的协调程度不高,总体上由早期的中度失调过渡到濒临失调阶段再发展到勉强协调阶段。18个地级市人口城镇化与土地城镇化的耦合协调性在空间维度上始终呈现以成都为协调性高点、四周协调性低点的“一强多弱”空间格局。2019年,除了绵阳、德阳、泸州、内江和自贡5个地级市为土地滞后型以外,其余城市的发展类型仍然是人口城镇化滞后型。

This article takes 18 prefecture-level cities in Sichuan Province as the research object.By researching the actual development of these cities,an evaluation index system is constructed so as to identify and understand the spatial and temporal evolution of the coordinated development of population and land urbanization in the region.And the coupling coordination relationship is measured and analyzed with the coupling coordination model so as to provide empirical references for the promotion of coordination relationship between the two factors.The research results are as follows:①temporally,the coupling and coordination of population urbanization and land urbanization in the18 cities are in an general upward trend with early moderate dissonance transiting to near dissonance and finally to quasi-coordination;②specially,among the18 cities,Chengdu has the highest degree of coordination.③In 2019,Mianyang,Deyang,Luzhou,Neijiang,and Zigong lagged in land urbanization,and others lagged in population urbanization.