生态位下中国区域创新生态系统适宜度评价与预测研究

Research on the Evaluation and Prediction of the Suitability of China’s Regional Innovation Ecosystem under Ecological Niche

构建起包含物种与非物种维度区域创新生态系统适宜度评价体系,对2010—2019年我国30个省份创新生态系统进行评价,并在预测精度比较后选择基于傅里叶级数修正的OGM模型(FOGM)预测“十四五”期间我国创新生态系统发展状态。结果显示:生态位下我国区域创新生态系统适宜度较低、进化动量较强,两者表现出反向发展态势。省份间适宜度与进化动量差异显著,适宜度呈现由东部向西部递减态势,进化动量则表现为相反特征。创新群落与环境生态位的适宜度低于我国整体适宜度,创新群落权重值远低于其他生态要素。预测结果表明我国生态位下创新生态系统在“十四五”期间能够保持稳步有序的发展态势且各生态要素也均能表现出不同程度的良好发展趋向,环境生态位与资源生态位仍处于我国创新生态系统的重要位置。据此,从培育平台构建、环境生态位优化、生态要素融合等提出相关对策建议。

Constructed an evaluation system for the suitability of regional innovation ecosystems including species and nonspecies dimensions,evaluated the innovation ecosystems of 30 provinces in the mainland of my country from 2010 to 2019,and selected a Fourier series correction based on the prediction accuracy The OGM model(FOGM)predicts the development status of my country’s innovation ecosystem during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. The results show that my country’s regional innovation ecosystem is relatively low in niche and has strong evolutionary momentum,and both show a reverse development trend. There is a significant difference in suitability and evolutionary momentum between provinces,with suitability decreasing from east to west,while evolutionary momentum shows the opposite characteristics. The suitability of the innovation community and the environmental niche is lower than the overall suitability of our country,and the weight value of the innovation community is much lower than other ecological factors. The prediction results show that the innovation ecosystem under the ecological niche of our country can maintain a steady and orderly development trend during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period,and all ecological elements can also show different degrees of good development trends.The environmental niche and resource niche are still in place. An important position in my country’s innovation ecosystem.Based on this,relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the construction of the cultivation platform,the optimization of the environmental niche,and the integration of ecological elements.