缅甸对中美竞争的认知与反应

Myanmar’s Perception of and Response to China-US Competition

中美战略竞争深刻影响着东南亚地区的地缘政治经济环境,而东南亚国家也在密切关注和把握中美竞争带来的影响。缅甸自独立以来奉行中立、不结盟的外交政策,但是,它的中立主义原则在实际外交实践中有时出现摇摆,因此理解缅甸选择的深层逻辑显得尤为重要。在缅甸政治与对外关系的起伏中,缅甸对中美竞争的认知和反应,很大程度上被中美缅三角关系的变化所左右。尤其在2021年军人再次接管国家政权后,缅甸问题再度成为中美关系中的交涉议题之一,导致缅甸在观察和评估中美竞争对其影响时的内外参数发生变化。历史经验表明,无论未来缅甸政局如何演变,缅甸会继续在现实与幻想之间努力寻找平衡位置,既想与中国合作获利,又试图利用美国制衡中国不断扩大的影响力。

The strategic competition between China and the United States has a profound impact on the geopolitical and economic environment in Southeast Asia, and Southeast Asian countries are paying close attention to and are trying to understand the impact. Since its independence, Myanmar has pursued a neutralist and non-aligned foreign policy, which sometimes swings in practical diplomatic activities, so it is particularly important to understand the logic of Myanmar’s choice. In the cycle of Myanmar’s politics and foreign relations, Myanmar’s perception of and response to China-US competition are largely influenced by the Sino-US-Myanmar triangular relationship. Especially after the Tatmadaw took over the state power again in 2021, the Myanmar issue once again became one of the negotiation topics in China-US relations, which led to changes in Myanmar’s internal and external variables when observing and evaluating the impact of China-US competition. Historical experience shows that no matter how Myanmar’s political situation evolves in the future, Myanmar will continue to try to find a balance between reality and expectation, not only to cooperate with China for profit, but also to use the United States to balance China’s expanding influence.