中美战略竞争下泰国的“非中性”对冲:特征、成因与趋势

Thailand’s “Non-neutral” Hedging in China-US Strategic Competition: Features, Causes and Trends

随着中美战略竞争持续升级,泰国一再重申传统对冲策略,但从中美泰三角关系走势来看,近十年来其战略重心明显朝着友华方向偏移。泰国“非中性”对冲源于国内政治权力结构调整的内生张力,呈现“以‘泰式民主’保守意识形态为基准,以经济与安全为两翼,以区域/次区域合作为纵深”的基本特征。从中长期来看,为防范泰国“非中性”对冲反转,有必要从地理连通、产业融通、民心相通等方面进一步夯实中泰战略合作根基。

As China-US strategic competition continues to escalate, Thailand has repeatedly reiterated its traditional hedging strategy. However, from the perspective of China-US-Thailand triangle relationship, its strategic focus has clearly shifted in the direction of being pro-China in the past decade. Thailand’s “non-neutral” hedging is derived from the endogenous tension of the adjustment of its domestic political power structure, showing the basic principle of “taking the conservative ideology of ‘Thai democracy’ as the benchmark, taking the economy and security as the twin wings, and taking the regional/sub-regional cooperation as the strategic depth”. In the medium and long run, for China to prevent Thailand’s “non-neutral” hedging reversal, it is necessary to further consolidate the foundation of Sino-Thai strategic cooperation in terms of geographic connectivity, industrial integration, and people-to-people bonds.