摘要
基于黄淮海地区107个气象站点历史气象观测数据,以及耦合模式第六次比较计划(CMIP6)中11个全球气候模式(GCM)两种情景(SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5)下气温和降水逐日数据,分析了未来两个时期(2021-2050年和2051-2080年)夏玉米生育期内高温热害和暴雨的时空演变特征。结果表明:基于分位数的偏差校正方法能有效消除气候模式中存在的系统性偏差。SSP2-4.5情景下夏玉米生育期内多模式平均最高温度在未来两个时期将分别增加1.38℃和2.52℃,而SSP5-8.5情景下将增加1.76℃和3.58℃。与此同时,SSP2-4.5情景下日最高温度超过35℃的积温(Killing Degree Days,KDD)在未来两个时期将分别增加16.4℃·d和41.3℃·d,而SSP5-8.5情景下将增加23.1℃·d和75.8℃·d,其中河南省增加幅度最为突出。SSP2-4.5情景下夏玉米生育期内多模式平均降水量将分别增加12.27 mm和26.39 mm,而SSP5-8.5情景下将增加9.86 mm和39.54 mm。大于50 mm的暴雨天数同样呈增加趋势,在SSP2-4.5情景下未来两个时期将分别增加0.09 d和0.18 d,而SSP5-8.5情景下将增加0.07 d和0.29 d。
Based on historical meteorological observation data from 107 stations in the Huang-Huai-Hai region,as well as daily temperature and precipitation under two scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)of 11 General Circulation Models(GCM)in Sixth Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),this study analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of heat and extreme precipitation during the growth period of summer maize in next two stages(2021-2050 and 2051-2080).The results show that quantile-based bias correction method(QM)can effectively eliminate the systematic bias in GCMs.Under SSP2-4.5 scenario,multi-model average maximum temperature during the growth period of summer maize will increase 1.38℃ and 2.52℃ respectively in next two stages.While under SSP5-8.5 scenario,it will increase 1.76℃and 3.58℃.At the same time,Killing Degree Days(KDD)with daily maximum temperature exceeding 35℃ under SSP2-4.5 scenario will increase 16.4℃·d and 41.3℃·d respectively in the next two stages.While under SSP5-8.5 scenario,it will increase23.1℃·d and 75.8℃·d.Among all the regions,Henan Province has the most prominent increase.Multi-model average precipitation during summer maize growing period under SSP2-4.5 scenario will increase 12.27 mm and 26.39 mm respectively for future two stages.While under SSP5-8.5 scenario,it will increase 9.86 mm and 39.54 mm.The number of heavy rain days also shows an increasing trend.Under SSP2-4.5scenario,it will increase 0.09 days and 0.18 days respectively in next two stages,while under SSP5-8.5 scenario it will increase by 0.07 days and 0.29 days.
作者
陈君洁
丁一民
高爽
万愉快
朱磊
CHEN Jun-jie;DING Yi-min;GAO Shuang;WAN Yu-kuai;ZHU Lei(School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China;Engineering Research Center for Efficient Utilization of Modern Agricultural Water Resources in Arid Regions,Ministry of Education,Yinchuan 750021,China)
出处
《节水灌溉》
北大核心
2022年第10期63-71,共9页
Water Saving Irrigation
基金
宁夏自然科学基金项目(2021AAC03091,2021AAC03074)。
