人口转型与二元经济结构收敛:来自发达国家的经验

Influence of Demographic Transition on the Convergence of Dual Economic Structure:Experience from Developed Countries

以人口生产数量偏好向质量偏好演进为特征的人口转型,能够通过推动投入要素结构和发展方式转变对二元经济结构收敛产生重要的促进作用。通过构建考虑人口量质转变的人口转型强度指标,采用发达工业化国家面板数据的实证研究支持了这一假说。在此基础上,对比分析人口转型等因素对发达国家二元经济结构收敛的影响,发现相对于其他因素,人口转型能更好地解释发达国家二元经济结构收敛的规律。发达国家人口转型与二元经济结构收敛的关系,可为发展中国家特别是处于经济迈向高质量发展阶段的中国提供启示,即政府应从单纯注重提升人口数量转向促进人口量质的同步提升,使人口转型成为推动经济快速协调高质量发展的又一着力点。

The demographic transition,characterized by the evolution of quantitative to qualitative preferences in fertility,can contribute significantly to the convergence of the dual economic structure by promoting a shift in the inputs structure and development patterns.This hypothesis is supported by an empirical study based on the panel data from developed countries and an indicator of demographic transition intensity taking into account the evolution of quantitative to qualitative preferences in fertility.Then this paper comparatively analyzes the influence of various factors including demographic transition on the convergence of dual economic structure.It is found that demographic transition can better explains the convergence pattern of the dual economic structure in developed countries,which can provide insights for developing countries,especially for China towards the stage of high-quality economic development.Specifically,the government should shift from focusing solely on enhancing the quantity of population to promoting the simultaneous enhancement of the quantity and quality of population,making demographic transition another propeller for the rapid and coordinated high-quality economic development.