互联网使用对农村居民线上消费的影响研究——来自中国家庭追踪调查数据的经验证据

Impact of Internet on Rural Residents'Online Consumption——Empirical Evidence from China Family Panel Studies

线上消费越来越受关注,但互联网普及并不等于实际使用。首次构建互联网使用影响农村居民线上消费的理论框架,基于中国家庭追踪调查2014~2018年农村数据建立计量模型,尝试性地从个体层面出发探讨互联网使用影响农村居民线上消费的非线性关系,识别家庭内部成员间相互影响在其中所起的作用。结果表明,互联网使用时间的增加显著提高了农村居民线上消费的可能性和数额,但边际影响不断减弱,面板门槛效应模型检验了“拐点”的存在;家庭其他成员互联网使用时间的增加会显著影响个体自身的线上消费行为,特别是受教育程度较低、年龄较大、人均收入较低和已婚的个体。因此,提倡合理使用互联网,针对不同人群做精准培训,有助于充分挖掘农村居民的线上消费潜力。

Online consumption is getting more and more attention,but the popularity of the internet is not equal to the actual usage.A theoretical framework about the impact of internet on the rural residents'online consumption was constructed firstly,and then an econometric model was built based on the 2014-2018 rural data of China Family Panel Studies,attempting to explore the non-linear relationship between the internet and online consumption behaviors of the rural residents from the individual level and then the influence of the interaction within the families was identified.The conclusions were as the followings.Increasing internet usage time made the possibility and amount of the rural online consumption increase at the same time with the weakening marginal impact,which was tested by the panel threshold effect model named"turning point".Increasing internet usage time of other household members would significantly affect the rural online consumption behavior,which was more obvious for individuals with lower education level,older age,lower per capita income and married.Therefore,promoting rational internet usage and accurate training for different groups of people would be helpful for fully tapping the online consumption potential of the rural residents.