经济发展、农民工收入与学龄前子女随迁——基于门槛效应的分析

Economic Development,Migrant Workers’ Income and Preschool Children’s Migration——Based on the Analysis of Threshold Effect

从理论上论证了农民工收入在影响学龄前子女随迁中存在门槛效应:只有当收入达到一定水平,即农民工收入与当地人均GDP之比较高时,农民工学龄前子女才可能随迁。应用“2018年全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测调查数据”与“中国宏观经济数据库”的市级匹配结果实证发现:门槛效应确实存在,门槛值为0.9;东部城市的农民工平均收入与当地人均收入之比低于门槛值,中西部城市则相反;农民工收入增加到一定水平后对学龄前子女随迁的约束作用会减弱,此时产生显著影响的是农民工的迁移距离、定居意愿、在务工地城市的医疗和住房保障等状况。

This paper theoretically argued the hypothesis that there was a threshold effect between migrant workers’ income and preschool children migration.Specially,only after the ratio of migrant workers’ income to local GDP per capita reached a higher level,rural preschool children were likely to move with them.Based on the municipal matching results of “National Mobile Population Health and Family Health Monitoring Survey Data 2018”and the “China Macroeconomic Database”,the empirical analysis revealed that,there was definitely a threshold effect,and the threshold value was 0.9.In eastern region,the ratio of migrant workers’ average income to local per capita income was lower than the threshold value,which was the opposite in central and western regions.After the income of migrant workers increased to a certain level,the restraint effect on the migration of preschool children would also be weakened.Factors that had a significant impact at this time included migrant workers’ migration distance,willingness to settle down,medical care and housing security in the cities where they worked.