长江上游流域水文预报系统及典型洪水反演分析

Hydrological Forecast System in the upper reaches of Yangtze River and typical flood inversion analysis

长江上游流域水文预报系统是三峡水利枢纽梯级调度通信中心开展水文预报业务的主要辅助决策工具,在长江干流梯级水库的运行和管理中发挥着关键作用。介绍了系统模拟的流域基本情况、气象水文站网、水文预报模型、气象预报以及数值预报产品的接入方式等。为检验系统的适用性和准确性,针对2021年汛期的3场典型洪水过程进行了反演分析。结果表明:该系统在反演分析中表现出了较好的性能和稳定性,但精度仍有改进空间。针对进一步提高预报精度和效率提出了几点优化建议,可为长江上游流域水文预报研究工作的提升和完善提供参考。

The hydrological forecast system in the upper reaches of Yangtze River is the main auxiliary decision-making tool for the Cascade Dispatching Communication Center of Three Gorges Project to carry out hydrological forecasting operations, which plays a key role in the operation and management of the cascade reservoirs on the main stream of Yangtze River.The hydrological forecasting system was introduced in terms of the basic situation of the basin, the meteorological and hydrological station network, the hydrological forecasting model, the meteorological forecasting and the access method of numerical forecasting products.In order to test the applicability and accuracy of the system, the inversion analysis was carried out for three typical flood processes in the flood season of 2021.The results showed that the hydrological forecasting system in the upper reaches of Yangtze River has good performance and stability in the inversion analysis, but there was still room for the accuracy improvement.Several optimization suggestions were put forward to further improve the accuracy and efficiency of hydrological forecasting in the upper reaches of Yangtze River, which can provide reference for the improvement of hydrological forecasting research in the upper reaches of Yangtze River.