京津冀协同发展政策效果评估——以家庭经济风险为例

Evaluation of the Effect of the Coordinated Development Policy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei:T aking Household Financial Risks as an Example

从微观家庭经济风险视角考察了京津冀协同发展政策的效果。结果表明:京津冀协同发展能显著降低京津冀地区整体家庭经济风险并缩小区域内家庭经济风险差异,尤其是农村、中低收入和经营工商业家庭的经济风险显著下降。但协同发展政策的影响路径存在异质性:产业转移升级、交通一体化对家庭收入的提升作用显著,公共服务均等化对家庭支出具有显著降低效应,但京津冀协同发展的辐射力度不足,仅能显著降低核心功能区和京津、环京津地区的家庭经济风险。上述结论为京津冀协同发展政策未来的优化和完善提供了立论依据:制定差异化政策协调机制,进一步提高产业转移和升级的质量和效率;加大金融行业的协调发展,进一步提高京津冀协同发展效率;以北京城市副中心和雄安新区为支撑点,加大河北城镇化建设力度,对接京津冀协同政策。

This paper examines the effect of the coordinated development policy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from the perspective of micro-household economic risk. The results show that the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can significantly reduce the overall economic risk of households in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and narrow the differences in household economic risk within the region, especially the economic risks of rural, low-and middle-income households, and business families. However, there is heterogeneity in the impact path of coordinated development policies: industrial transfer and upgrading and transportation integration have a significant effect on household income, and the equalization of public services has a significant reduction effect on household expenditures. However, the radiation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development is insufficient. It can only significantly reduce the family economic risk in the core functional areas and the Beijing-Tianjin and Beijing-Tianjin areas. The above conclusions provide a rationale for the future optimization and improvement of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development policy: formulate a differentiated policy coordination mechanism to further improve the quality and efficiency of industrial transfer and upgrading;increase the coordinated development of the financial industry and further improve the coordination of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei development efficiency;with Beijing sub-center and Xiongan New Area as the support points, increase the urbanization construction of Hebei, and connect the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated policy.