乌克兰危机对中国农产品贸易及粮食安全的影响研究

A Research on the Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on the Agricultural Trade and Food Security in China

愈演愈烈的俄乌冲突、西方国家对俄罗斯的制裁与俄罗斯的反制裁,使俄罗斯和乌克兰经济遭受严重冲击,乌克兰危机正在演变成为一场重大的世界政治地缘博弈,给全球贸易和粮食安全带来了巨大的不确定性和威胁。本文通过分析中国农产品产量,进出口结构以及中俄、中乌农产品贸易总体情况,从国内、国际两个市场推演了乌克兰危机对中国农产品贸易和粮食安全的短期、长期影响及作用机制。具体分析表明:(1)乌克兰危机虽然会影响中国农产品进口量,造成农产品市场价格波动,但是得益于中国稳固的粮食安全防线,危机短期内对中国的粮食安全威胁较小;(2)从中长期来看,乌克兰危机会改变全球农产品和粮食贸易格局,加剧农产品和粮食供应的不确定性。同时,双方冲突对农业生产要素的影响会通过价格传导机制抬高粮食生产成本,降低粮农生产积极性。中国应当充分利用“两个市场、两种资源”,通过分化进口来源国,寻找农产品进口替代;完善粮食收储制度、落实生产补贴,稳定粮农生产积极性,努力平衡粮食安全与农民收益之间的关系,弱化粮食“生产-价格”呈发散型“蛛网”波动的不确定性和风险,确保国内粮食供应长期稳定和安全。

The intensifying Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Western sanctions against Russia and the Russian counter-sanctions have exerted a serious impact on the economies of both Russia and Ukraine. This ongoing conflict is turning into an important change to the prevailing geo-political structure of the world, causing huge uncertainties and threats to the global trade and food security. By analyzing the output and the structure of import and export of the Chinese agricultural products, as well as the overall situation of Sino-Russian and Sino-Ukrainian agricultural trade, this paper posits both the short-term and long-term impact mechanisms of the Ukrainian crisis on the agricultural trade and food security in China from both the domestic and international perspectives. The empirical analysis implies the following. Firstly, although the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will affect the import volume of agricultural products in China and hence cause fluctuations in the market price, only limited effect is posed by the crisis on the food security of this country in the short term, thanks to the solid domestic food security defense line. And secondly, in the medium and long term, the conflict between these two countries will change the global trade pattern of agricultural products and foodstuff, and increase the uncertainty in agricultural and food supply. The impact of conflict on agricultural production factors will increase the costs in the agricultural production through the price transmission mechanism, thereby hurting farmers’ enthusiasm for agricultural production. Against this background, China should make full use of the ’two markets, two sources’ to find alternatives to agricultural imports by dividing import source countries. There also exists a need to encourage the Chinese agricultural producers in increasing their domestic food production by way of providing more support to them, as well as to expand the existing grain storage capacity to balance seasonable food supply to reduce the negative impact of the so-called ’cobweb’ phenomenon typically prevailing in food production.