文化与教育对生育意愿的影响及其演化趋势

The Influence of Culture and Education on Fertility Desire and Its Evolution

我国当前的低生育水平表明适龄夫妇的生育意愿已经发生了变化,许多居民不再愿意多生育子女。根据日常生活经验,居民的受教育程度与所持有的家庭观念会影响其生育意愿,但影响程度及其演化趋势仍有待进一步量化研究。利用CGSS调查数据,分析近十年来教育与文化因素对居民生育意愿的具体影响和变化趋势。结果显示:居民的受教育程度与所持有的家庭观念都与生育意愿呈负相关;其中居民受教育程度与其意愿子女数之间的负相关系数多年来保持稳定,同时家庭的现代文化观念对于居民意愿子女数的抑制作用呈现逐年加强趋势。

The long-term low fertility level shows that the fertility desire of Chinese residents has undergone fundamental changes,and many residents are unwilling to have more children.It seems self-evident that residents’educational level and family concept have influence on their fertility desire,but the actual influence degree and the evolution trend of the influencing factors still need to be studied.Using the CGSS survey data,this paper analyzes the changes in the influence of educational and cultural factors on residents’willingness to bear children in the past ten years.The results show that:residents’educational level and family concept are negatively correlated with their willingness to bear children;the negative correlation coefficient between residents’educational level and their desired number of children has remained stable for many years.The inhibitory effect of the modern family cultural concept on the number of children desired by residents has been enhanced year by year.