美国新保守主义的历史演进与发展趋势

The Historical Evolution and Development Trend of American Neoconservatism

新保守主义的发展与美国外交政策的演进相互交织。里根时期,新保守主义的主要表现是反对苏联及其所代表的共产主义;小布什时期,表现为对抗激进的伊斯兰主义,推动中东“民主化”改造运动,通过伊拉克战争使其影响达到高潮;特朗普时期,表现为强调中美意识形态差异,推动美国对华竞争战略。从长远来看,新保守主义会继续影响美国外交政策,特别是当意识形态威胁与国家安全威胁相一致时,这种影响会表现得尤为明显。但受政治联盟、公众舆论以及国际形势变化等内外因素的作用,新保守主义不会完全主导美国外交政策走向,其影响力可能会逐渐趋于弱化。

The development of neoconservatism is interacted with the evolution of American foreign policy. During the Reagan administration, the neoconservatives opposed to the Soviet Union and the communism. During the George W. Bush administration, the neoconservatives opposed to radical Islamism, supported the democratization and transformation of the Middle East, and gained great influence by advocating the Iraq War. During the Trump administration, the neoconservatives emphasized the ideological differences between China and America and supported to compete with China. In the long run, the neoconservatism will continue to influence American foreign policy. When ideological threats are aligned with national security threats, and this influence will be particularly evident. However, due to internal and external factors such as political alliance, public opinion and changes in the international situation, neoconservatism will not play a dominant role in American foreign policy, and its influence may gradually diminish.