2017-2020年内蒙古自治区肺结核时空分布特征分析

Spatiotemporal distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis in Inner Mongolia, 2017-2020

目的 分析内蒙古自治区(内蒙古)肺结核时空分布特征,探索肺结核高发区域,为制定相关防控政策提供理论依据。方法 收集2017—2020年内蒙古105个旗(县、区)肺结核患者登记数据,结合中国矢量化省界电子地图,进行趋势、空间自相关以及时空扫描分析,探索其空间聚集性。结果 2017—2020年内蒙古肺结核年均登记率为42.35/10万(42 368/10 004.97万);三维趋势分析图结果显示,2017—2020年内蒙古肺结核年均登记率由北向南先缓慢上升后下降,东西方向呈中间低两边高的“U”形分布;空间自相关结果显示,2017、2019和2020年内蒙古肺结核登记率整体存在空间正相关性,Moran’s I分别为0.256、0.314和0.339(P<0.05),2017—2020年“H–H”聚集区位于呼伦贝尔市(P<0.05);时空扫描结果显示,共发现7个聚集区域覆盖36个旗(县、区),其中一类聚集区域以科尔沁右翼前旗为中心覆盖东部14个旗(县、区),聚集时间为2017—2018年。结论 2017、2019和2020年内蒙古肺结核登记整体存在时空聚集性且聚集区域主要位于东部地区,应加强东部地区肺结核的防控。

Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis(TB) in Inner Mongolia autonomous region from 2017 to 2020, indentify the areas with high-incidence of pulmonary TB, and provide a theoretical basis for the development of TB prevention and control policies. Methods The registration data of pulmonary TB patients in 105 banners(county, district) in Inner Mongolia from 2017 to 2020 were collected, and combined with the electronic map of Vectorized provincial boundaries of China, the trend, spatial autocorrelation and spatiotemporal scanning analysis were conducted to identify the spatial clustering of pulmonary TB. Results From 2017 to 2020, the average annual pulmonary TB registration rate in Inner Mongolia was 42.35/100 000. The results of three-dimensional trend analysis showed that the annual pulmonary TB registration rate in Inner Mongolia from 2017 to 2020 increased firstly in northern area, then in southern area and then gradually decreased, showing a U-shaped distribution from east to west. Spatial autocorrelation results showed that there was a positive spatial correlation between pulmonary TB registration rates in Inner Mongolia in 2017, 2019and 2020, the values of Moran’s I were 0.256, 0.314 and 0.339(P<0.05), respectively. During 2017-2020, H–H clustering was in Hulunbuir(P<0.05);The spatiotemporal scanning results showed that there were 7 clustering areas covering 36banners(county, district). The first type of clustering area covered 14 banners(county, district) with Horqin right front banner as the center in the eastern Inner Mongolia, and the clustering time was 2017-2018. Conclusion In 2017, 2019 and 2020, the pulmonary TB registration in Inner Mongolia had spatiotemporal clustering, and the clustering area was mainly in eastern Inner Mongolia, so the prevention and control of pulmonary TB in the eastern area should be strengthened.