基于统计检验的新冠疫情对肉鸡产业运作影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of COVID-19 on Broiler Industry Based on Statistical Tests

随着我国新冠疫情防控机制的常态化,国内疫情基本平稳,偶发疫情往往能够在一定的时间限度内被有效控制。在国外疫情依然处在高发阶段的形势下,新冠疫情防控的长期化将使我国各行各业迈入一个后疫情时代的新阶段。本文从肉鸡产业在新冠疫情冲击下的运行状况出发,通过对肉鸡产业在供销两端的宏观经济指标进行回归分析和方差分析,对比新冠疫情发生前和发生后的不同防控阶段、肉鸡产业的宏观运作表现,并结合肉鸡产业某上市公司财务指标的变化,发现新冠疫情的发展及封控措施的不同对肉鸡产业的整体运营带来一定影响,且其相关指标的差异是显著的。为此,本文针对性地提出了相关的政策建议与行业改进意见,从而为肉鸡为主的家禽产业对抗疫情负面冲击提供科学参考。

With the regular of prevention and control mechanism on COVID-19 in China, the epidemic situation of COVID-19 in China is basically stable, and occasional outbreaks can be basically extinguished within a certain week. In the new situation where the epidemic in foreign countries is still in the stage of high incidence, the long-term prevention and control of COVID-19 lead China to a new stage of post-epidemic era. This paper forcused on the impact of the COVID-19 prevention and control mechanism on the broiler industry through regression analysis and variance analysis contrast on its macroeconomic indicators, and combined with the change of the financial indicators of broiler industry listed company. Based on the statistical test results, this paper discovered the new evolution of COVID-19 and related traffic control measures brings a certain impact on broiler industry. But the impact is not overall negative, only part of negative impact is significant in statistical verification. So this paper puts forward the relevant policy recommendations and industry improvement opinion, so as to provide scientific reference for broiler industry against the negative impact from COVID-19.