中国经济潜在增长率的要素贡献、潜力空间与提升路径

Factor Contribution, Potential Space and Promotion Path of China’s Potential Economic Growth Rate

基于生产函数模型结合H-P滤波的经济潜在增长率测算法,分析近年来我国劳动力、资本、土地、技术、数据等生产要素对于经济增长的贡献情况,在此基础上分情景测算2021—2035年我国各类生产要素和经济潜在增长率的潜力空间,研究发现:2012—2020年期间我国经济增速持续放缓主要源于资本存量和全要素生产率增速的明显回落,二者对于经济潜在增长率回落幅度的贡献率分别高达60%和30%,同期劳动力、土地要素的贡献率仅分别约为5%;2021—2035年期间,针对基准、乐观、悲观等不同情景组合,测算年均经济潜在增长率将位于3.92%~5.19%区间之内;劳动力要素对于经济增长的拖累作用将进一步显现,资本、全要素生产率两要素仍具有较大潜力空间,基准情景下二者对于经济潜在增长率的年均贡献率可分别达到45%和55%左右,成为推动我国基本实现社会主义现代化的重要动力源泉。

Based on the production function model combined with the H-P filtering, this paper analyzes the contribution of labor, capital, land, technology and data to China’s economic growth in recent years, and calculates the potential space of China’s various production factors and potential economic growth rate from 2021 to 2035 by scenarios. The results show that the continuous slowdown of China’s economic growth rate during 2012—2020 is mainly due to the obvious decline in the growth rate of capital stock and total factor productivity(TFP), which contribute 60% and 30% to the decline of the potential economic growth rate respectively, while the contribution rates of labor and land factors are only about 5% respectively in the same period;from 2021 to 2035, according to the combination of benchmark, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, the estimated average annual potential economic growth rate is within the range of 3.92%~5.19%;the dragging effect of the labor factor on economic growth will be further revealed, while the capital and TFP factor still have large potential space, under the benchmark scenario, the average annual contribution rates of the two factors to the potential economic growth rate can reach about 45% and 55% respectively, which means that they are becoming important power sources to promote China’s basic realization of socialist modernization.