基于逐步回归方法的福建省CPI影响因素分析

Analysis of influencing factors of CPI in Fujian province based on stepwise regression method

CPI(居民消费价格指数)是反映一揽子商品和服务的价格水平在一定时期内波动情况的指标。它是国民价格体系里的核心成员,其指标变动程度在一定程度上反映了居民生活水平的变化情况。基于逐步回归方法综合考虑影响CPI的内部因素与外部因素建立多元线性回归模型,识别对福建省CPI产生重要影响的经济因素,发现内部因素有家庭设备用品及服务类指数、居住类指数,外部因素有商品零售价格指数以及广义货币供给增长率。

CPI,the consumer price index,is an indicator that reflects the fluctuation of the price level of a package of goods and services in a certain period of time.CPI is the core member of the national price system,and its index change reflects the change of residents’ living standards to a certain extent.Based on the stepwise regression method,considering the internal and external factors affecting CPI,a multiple linear regression model is established to identify the economic factors that have an important impact on CPI in Fujian province.It is found that the internal factors include household equipment,goods and services index and residential index,external factors include commodity retail price index and the growth rate of broad money supply.