中国农用水泵数量预测及影响因素实证分析

Quantity Prediction of Agricultural Water Pumps in China and Empirical Analysis of Influencing Factors

为准确把握我国农用水泵数量变化趋势,以期为农用水泵产业发展提供依据,对全国农用水泵数量趋势及空间分布特征进行了研究。研究结果表明,全国农用水泵数量呈显著增长趋势,万台以上农用水泵主要集中于我国东部地区。为明确农用水泵数量的主要影响因素,选取乡村人口、水库数量、旱灾面积、洪涝灾面积、农村居民可支配收入、粮食种植面积6个因素,并对其进行趋势分析和实证分析,结果显示:乡村人口、水库数量和粮食种植面积对农业水泵数量影响显著。在此基础上,采用GM(1,1)模型对近6年全国农用水泵数量进行预测,结果显示,农用水泵数量呈稳定增长趋势。

In order to accurately grasp the change trend of the number of agricultural water pumps in China and provide the basis for the development of agricultural water pump industry,this paper studied the quantity trend and spatial distribution characteristics of agricultural water pumps in China.The results show that the number of agricultural water pumps in China is increasing significantly,and more than 10000 agricultural water pumps are mainly concentrated in eastern China.In order to clarify the main influencing factors of the number of agricultural water pumps,this paper selected six factors including rural population,number of reservoirs,drought area,flood area,disposable income of rural residents,and grain planting area,and carried out trend analysis and empirical analysis.The results show that the rural population,the number of reservoirs and the grain planting area have a significant impact on the number of agricultural water pumps.On this basis,this study used GM(1,1)model to predict the number of agricultural water pumps in China in the past six years.The results show that the number of agricultural water pumps have a stable growth trend.