对刑罚修订的效果量化分析与反思

Evaluation and reflection on the penalty revision t in the amendments

为了检验十一个刑法修正案对刑罚的修订是趋于轻缓还是严厉,对新增犯罪的配刑、个罪法定刑的修改、总则中刑罚结构的调整进行模型构建与量化分析。结果发现,刑罚修订呈现出结构性的趋重。刑罚的结构性趋重将使得狱内刑期结构和人口监禁率进一步增高,表明刑罚修订的负面效果明显。若要改变结构性趋重的刑罚修订现状与消解刑罚修订引起的负面效果,就必须明确“综合刑主义”的刑罚修订目标与建立完善的刑罚权运行机制,使得未来的刑罚修订更加理性。

The model and quantitative analysis are carried out on the trend of penalty allocation for newly added crimes,the revision for statutory penalty and the adjustment for penalty structure in general provisions in order to test whether penalty is increasing or decreasing in the Amendments to the Criminal Law.The result shows that it reflects the prevailing concept of structurally heavy punishment doctrine.The structurally heavy punishment would further increase sentence structure in prison and incarceration rate,it shows that the negative effect is obvious.It is necessary to clarify the goal of comprehensive doctrine and establish the operation mechanism of penalty power if we want to change the structurally heavy penalty revision and eliminate the negative effect in order to make penalty revision more rational.