中国女子冰壶队得分表现特征及发展策略

Scoring Performance Characteristics and Development Strategy of the Chinese Women’s Curling Team

分析中国女子冰壶队2022年北京冬奥会周期内参赛的得分表现特征,并提出针对性发展策略.采用马尔科夫决策模型计算冰壶比赛的得分概率分布,并得出适合我国女子冰壶队在比赛中各局次的最佳状态.结果显示:(1)比赛开局、晚局的得分特征及末局比赛的先后手权对比赛结果具有重要作用;比赛中局阶段表现出“不稳定性”及“慢热型”的得分特征.(2)获胜时高得分能力有限和控分能力较强,失利时得分与控分能力均较差.(3)与国外强队对比,呈现出后手局得分能力不弱,先手局“偷分”及防守能力不足的特征.建议:尽量遵循最优“先后手”模式;重视首局战术策略达成的技术能力培养;加强中局对前段竞技过程的控制;提高晚局控分和末局得分能力;强化专项能力提高投壶成功率,并增加高难技术的训练与实战尝试.

This article analyzes the scoring characteristics of the Chinese Women’s Curling Team during the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics session and proposes targeted development strategies.Markov Decision Processes(MDP)is adopted to calculate the scoring probability distribution in curling games,figuring out the optimal state suitable for the Chinese women’s curling team in each end.Results:(1)The scoring characteristics of the start and the late ends of the games,as well as the sequence of without or with the hammer in the final ends,have a crucial impact on the result;the scoring performance features“instability”and“slow starter”in the middle ends.(2)When winning,the high-scoring ability is limited but the score-commanding ability is satisfactory,but at a disadvantage neither of these two is satisfying.(3)Compared with top foreign teams,the Chinese Women’s Curling Team features satisfactory scoring ability while with the hammer but poor“stealing”and defensive ability while without hammer.Suggestions:Try to follow the optimal“without、with the hammer”mode;Pay attention to the training of technical ability achieved by the first-end tactical strategy;Strengthen the control of the early-stage competition process in the middle end;Improve the ability to control the score in the late and final ends;Strengthen the specialized ability to increase the success rate of throwing and accentuate sophisticated training and real-life practice.