并购反垄断审查中的反事实比对

Counterfactual Analysis in Mergers and Acquisitions Anti-monopoly Review

基于涉嫌违法行为不发生情形下的市场状态进行的反事实比对,是反垄断法律制度实施科学性的重要保障,世界主要反垄断辖区对此都非常重视。反事实主要聚焦那些对相关市场的竞争产生显著影响的事件,在具体案件中并不需要高度精确。并购交易时的市场状况可以作为大部分案件反事实比对的基础,一些案件则需要合理预测市场的未来变化。动态反事实主要涉及交易各方的市场扩张、市场进入以及市场退出。动态反事实具有不确定性,执法部门需要尽量收集不同类型的证据进行综合评估。我国在《反垄断法》实施方面应该树立反事实比对的整体方法论意识,在此基础上完善规则与执法,特别是涉初创企业、新兴平台的交易应该重视动态反事实比对的适用。

The counterfactual analysis based on the market status when the suspected monopolistic conduct did not happen is an essential guarantee for the scientific implementation of anti-monopoly law and is highly valued by various jurisdictions.Counterfactual analysis focuses on incidents that have prominent impacts on competition,which does not require high accuracy in concrete cases.It is common practice to have the prevailing market at the time of mergers and acquisitions transactions as the basis while in other cases the competition authority must predict a reasonable future market.Dynamic counterfacts relates to market expansion of merging parties,market entry and market exit.The competition authority should endeavor to collect and compile all relevant evidence,considering the uncertainty of dynamic counterfacts.When enforcing the Anti-monopoly Law of the PRC,China should establish a systematic counterfactual methodology and pay due attention to dynamic counterfacts,based on which to further improve legislation and enforcement,especially when it comes to start-up and nascent platform.