陕西县域苹果种植风险评估与保险费率厘定

Risk Assessment and Premium Rating of Apple Planting in the Base Counties of Shaanxi Province

苹果是陕西农业特色经济的支柱产业,但在种植过程中面临着严重的气象灾害风险,农业保险在分散和转移其风险方面未能充分发挥效能。根据陕西省30个苹果基地县1981-2019年苹果种植面积、产量和单产数据,采用数理统计、产量损失分布模型和最优分布模型筛选等方法,评估各基地县苹果种植风险并厘定苹果种植保险费率。结果表明:1981-2019年,陕西省30个苹果基地县苹果种植面积、产量和单产均呈波动上升趋势,洛川、礼泉和淳化种植面积和产量位居前列,多年平均种植面积分别为2.12万hm^(2)、2.01万hm^(2)和1.94万hm^(2),平均产量分别为33.19万t、51.26万t和34.28万t;礼泉和扶风县单产较高,多年平均单产分别为19.71t·hm^(-2)和16.89t·hm^(-2)。30个基地县苹果发生灾害的平均概率为29.72%,轻、中、重和巨灾发生的平均概率分别为17.41%、7.21%、2.99%和2.11%;延川和千阳县巨灾发生概率最高,分别为24.18%和20.79%。研究区域重灾和巨灾发生概率与种植面积呈负相关,其相关系数均为-0.50。30个基地县苹果种植的平均费率为5.23%,费率最高的是延川县的18.37%,其次是千阳县的16.61%;礼泉、洛川和淳化县三大苹果种植基地县的费率则相对较低,分别为7.12%、7.35%和8.63%。因此,延川和千阳等高风险种植区“北进西扩”需谨慎,洛川、礼泉和淳化的种植优势可继续保持,凤翔等低风险地区应考虑扩种。在自然灾害风险较低的地区增加苹果种植面积能在空间上有效分散风险,在推进苹果农业保险时,建议因地制宜实行差异化费率,保证费率的科学性,提高农业保险的效能。

Apple is the pillar industry of agricultural characteristic economy in Shaanxi province,but it is facing severe weather disasters during the production process,and the agricultural insurance has not effectively dispersed and transferred these risk.The data of apple planting area,production and yield per unit area of 30 base counties in Shaanxi province from 1981 to 2019 were collected,and the mathematical statistical analysis,yield loss distribution models and optimal distribution model screening were used to evaluate and determine the apple planting risk and its insurance premium rate.The results showed that the apple planting area,production and yield per unit area were increased from 1981 to 2019 in Shaanxi province.Luochuan,Liquan and Chunhua had the highest planting area and production,and the average planting area were 2.12×10^(4)ha,2.01×10^(4)ha,and 1.94×10^(4)ha,the average production were 33.19×10^(4)t,51.26×10^(4)t and 34.28×10^(4)t respectively from 1981 to 2019.Liquan and Fufeng were characterized by the relatively higher average yield per hectare with 19.71t and 16.89t respectively from 1981 to 2019.The probability of disaster risk was 29.72%,and the mild,medium,severe and extreme disasters were 17.41%,7.21%,2.99%and 2.11%respectively for apple planting in Shaanxi province.Yanchuan and Qianyang were prone to extreme disasters with probability of 24.18%and 20.79%.The probability of severe and extreme disasters was negatively correlated to the planting area with the correlation coefficients of-0.50.The average premium rate of apple planting was 5.23%in Shaanxi province,Yanchuan had the highest premium rate of 18.37%,followed by Qianyang(16.61%).Liquan,Luochuan,and Chunhua,the bigger apple-planting counties,had relatively low premium rates of 7.12%,7.35%,and 8.63%respectively.Therefore,the high risk areas such as Yanchuan and Qianyang should be cautious in"northward expansion",Luochuan,Liquan and Chunhua could be maintained the planting advantages,and the low risk areas such as Fengxiang could be considered in planting expansion.Increasing apple planting in area with low natural disaster risk could effectively spread the risk in space.The differentiated premium rate according to local conditions should be implemented to ensure the scientificity of premium rate and improve the efficiency of agricultural insurance.