收益法模型比较分析及现金流折现模型的主要问题与对策

Comparative Analysis of Income Approach Models and Main Problems and Countermeasures of Discounted Cash Flow Model

目前在评估实务界,企业价值评估收益法模型主要采用企业自由现金流折现模型或股权自由现金流折现模型,使用上述模型容易产生的主要问题有:1.在预期资本结构变化较大的情况下,仍按不变的资本结构预测,会导致折现率出现较大误差;2.未考虑投入资本回报率是否合理;3.采用企业自由现金流折现模型,未单独预测利息支出,可能导致在测算弥补亏损时出现错误等。笔者通过对三种收益法模型的比较分析,来理清各模型的基本原理、特点、适用性及采用现金流折现模型易出现的主要问题与对策等,希望对评估人员合理选择收益法模型及正确理解并使用现金流折现模型有所帮助。

At present, in the field of appraisal practice, income approach model for valuing the enterprise value mainly adopts the FCFF or the FCFE. The main problems easily caused when using the above models are as follows:1. When the expected capital structure changes greatly, it will lead to a large error in the discount rate if the forecast is still based on the unchanged capital structure. 2. Failure to consider whether the rate of return on invested capital is reasonable;3. The FCFF is adopted, if the interest expense is not predicted separately, which may lead to errors in the calculation of loss covering. Through the comparative analysis of the three income approach models, the author tries to clarify the basic principles, characteristics, applicability of each model and the main problems and countermeasures of using the discounted cash flow mode,etc. The author hopes that it will be helpful for valuers to reasonably choose the income approach model and to correctly understand and use the discounted cash flow mode.