2000—2019年越南人口时空分异特征及其演变类型

Characteristics of spatio-temporal differences and evolution types of Vietnamese population from 2000 to 2019

越南是中国重要的海陆邻国,开展其人口分布的研究对揭示越南人口发展规律和服务“一带一路”建设具有重要意义。基于越南2000—2019年人口统计数据,采用GIS空间分析方法揭示了越南21世纪以来人口时空分布特征,并依据人口密度和人口增长速度进一步划分其人口演变类型,最后从地形起伏度,人均GDP和外商投资总额3个因素分析了越南人口时空分异的影响机制。结果表明:(1)越南人口总量即将突破1亿大关,但人口增长率不断下降,近年来逐渐稳定在1.10%左右。(2)“南北多中间少,东部沿海多,西部内陆少”是越南人口空间分布总体特征,这与其国土形状与地形特征紧密吻合。近20年越南人口高密度地区基本稳定,全国人口空间分布格局变化较小。(3)越南人口分布演变类型以中高密度慢速增长为主(61.91%),而人口快速增长地区可以分为社会经济发达地区的中高密度快速增长与西北部边境和西原地区的低密度快速增长两种类型。(4)以地形起伏度为代表的自然地理要素决定了越南人口分布的基本格局,以人均GDP和外商投资总额为代表的经济发展水平是人口集疏过程的根本动力,但越南边境地区的人口快速增长则明显受到政府宽松的生育政策和对主体民族京族移民实边政策的影响。

Vietnam, an important land and maritime neighboring country of China, is one of the key-node countries along the green Silk Road. With the national demographic data from 2000 to 2019, the spatio-temporal characteristics in Vietnam during the first two decades of the 21century are analyzed using the GIS spatial analysis method. Next, the evolution types of the Vietnamese population are defined based on the population density and its growth rate, followed by the discussion of impact mechanism of spatio-temporal differences and evolution types of the Vietnamese population. The results show that:(1) Vietnamese total population is about to reach 100 million, yet accomplished by a decreasing rate of population growth between 2000 and 2019.(2) The northern and southern delta plains of the Red and the Mekong are the two most populous regions. Also, the lengthy eastern coastal belt is more populated than its counterpart of the western inlands.(3) The evolution type of Vietnamese population was dominated by the mediumhigh density but slow growth(61. 91%). The rapid growth of provincial regions included the socio-economically developed areas due to medium-to-high population density and rapid growth,such as Ha Noi and Ho Chi Minh City, while the low density and rapid growth of provincial population were typically seen in the northwestern borders and the Central Highlands, such as Lai Chau, Kon Tum, and Dak Nong.(4) The spatio-temporal differences and evolution types of Vietnamese population are influenced by physical geography, socioeconomic and government policy. First, the relief degree of land surface(RDLS) determines the population distribution, while the economic development level represented by per capita GDP and total registered foreign capital investment(FDI) is the main drivers of the population change. However, the rapid population growth in the border areas obviously affected by government policies, e. g., the loose population policies for ethnic minorities and long-term immigration policies.