广西手足口病时空分异及其地理环境因子探测分析

Spatio-temporal difference and geographical environment factors of hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangxi

广西是我国手足口病高发区。本文运用相关性分析、趋势面分析及地理探测器,基于2013—2017年广西14个地级市的手足口病和理环境要素(降水量、气温、日照时数、相对湿度和植被覆盖度)数据,对广西手足口病发病率进行时空变化和交互归因分析。结果显示:(1)2013—2017年,研究区的手足口病发病呈峰谷年交替出现,年内发病双高峰特征;盆地地区的手足口病发病率稍高于其他地区。(2)气温和日照时数与广西手足口病发病率存在着显著正相关关系。(3)2013—2017年,东西方向上中西部各地级市手足口病发病率普遍高于东南部各地级市;南北方向上各地级市手足口病发病率差异并不非常显著。(4)气温对广西手足口病发病率影响最大(q=0.49),其次是日照时数(q=0.45);气温和日照时数对广西手足口病发病风险有着严密共增长趋势;每两个地理环境要素之间的交互作用对手足口病发病率的影响力均比单要素作用时强,其中气温和日照时数交互作用时的影响力最大,日照时数和降水量交互作用时的影响力次之。据此得出结论:广西手足口病发病有明显的时间和空间差异;各地理环境要素与手足口病之间存在一定关系,其中气温对发病率影响最大。

Guangxi is one of the regions with high incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in China. Correlation analysis, trend surface analysis and geographic detectors are used to explore the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of HFMD in Guangxi and analyze its influencing factors, based on the HFMD data of 14 prefecture-level cities in Guangxi from 2013 to 2017. The results showed that:(1) From 2013 to 2017, the interannual variation of HFMD in Guangxi showed a peak incidence every two years, and the incidence of HFMD in Guangxi from January 2017 to December 2017 presented a double peak within a year. In terms of regional distribution, the incidence of HFMD in the basin is slightly higher than other regions.(2) The air temperature and sunshine duration were positively correlated with the incidence of HFMD in Guangxi.(3) From 2013 to 2017, in the east-west direction, the incidence of HFMD in the central and western cities was generally higher than that in the southeast cities;the difference in the incidence of HFMD between the north and the south was not very significant.(4) Air temperature had the greatest influence on the incidence of HFMD in Guangxi(q value:0. 49), followed by sunshine duration(q value: 0. 45);Temperature and sunshine duration had a rigorous co-increasing trend on the incidence risk of HFMD in Guangxi;The interaction between every two geographical environmental factors had a stronger influence on the incidence of HFMD than the single factor, in which the interaction between temperature and sunshine duration had the greatest influence, followed by the interaction between sunshine duration and precipitation. It can be concluded that the incidence of HFMD in Guangxi is obviously different in temporal and spatial, and there is a certain relationship between various geographical environmental factors and HFMD.