基于事实汇率制度视角的货币国际化指数构建与分析

The Construct and Analysis of Currency Internationalization Index: Based on the Perspective of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes

针对现有货币国际化指数构建方法中未区分事实汇率制度和法定汇率制度的问题,文章使用182个经济体1999年1月至2021年10月相关数据,通过货币“隐性锚”模型识别各国事实货币篮子。综合结算、计价和储备三方面指标,计算了人民币、美元、欧元、英镑和日元的货币国际化指数。主要结论是:第一,考虑到事实汇率制度的人民币国际化指数高于基于其他指数的计算结果,但并未提升人民币国际化排名;第二,当前人民币国际化正处于第三个发展周期上升阶段。截至2021年10月,人民币国际化指数为3.45%,达到近7年来最高点,但依旧低于美元(46.92%)、欧元(27.86%)、英镑(6.42%)和日元(5.15%),位居全球第五位。研究认为应进一步强化人民币在各国货币锚中的地位。

In response to the existing problem of the lack of distinction between the de facto exchange rate system and the de jure exchange rate system in the construction of currency internationalization indexes,this paper uses the relevant data of 182 economies from January 1999 to October 2021 to identify the de facto currency basket of various countries through the currency " hidden anchor" model. The currency internationalization indexes of RMB,US Dollar,Euro,British Pound and Japanese Yen are calculated by integrating the three indicators of settlement,pricing and reserves. The main conclusions are as follows: first,the RMB internationalization index that based on the de facto exchange rate system is higher than the calculation results based on other indices,but it does not improve the RMB internationalization ranking;second,the internationalization of RMB is in the recovery stage of the third cycle nowadays. In October 2021,the RMB internationalization index was 3. 45%,which was lower than the US Dollar( 46. 92%),the Euro( 27. 86%),the British Pound( 6. 42%) and the Japanese Yen( 5. 15%). The research results of this paper have significant guidance for the path of RMB internationalization,that is,the position of RMB in the currency anchor of various countries should be further strengthened.