国际矿业开发项目投资估算精度研究与思考

Research and reflection on the accuracy of cost estimation ofinternational mining development projects

矿产资源全球范围内优化布局、合理配置成为实施矿产资源“走出去”战略的首要任务。针对国际矿业项目的特点和投资内容,结合行业协会及相关部门监管要求,统计分析了不同开发阶段矿业开发项目定义(成熟度)级别以及交付技术成果深度所对应的投资估算分级,研究了不同投资级别对应的典型投资估算精度,为利益相关者形成对投资估算结果及精度的共同理解提供依据。

In recent years,the competition for comprehensive national power based on resources has become increasingly fierce,and the optimal layout and rational allocation of mineral resources on a global scale become the primary task in implementing the“Going Global”strategy for mineral resources.In this paper,the cost classification system was analyzed corresponding to the definition(maturity)level and the technical deliverables of mining projects at different development stages.The typical cost estimation accuracy corresponding to different cost classification was studied to provide a basis for stakeholders to form a common understanding of cost estimation results and accuracy.