国际金融风险传播机制新变化及防范策略——以新冠肺炎疫情为背景

New Changes and Precaution Strategies for Communication Mechanism of International Financial Risks——In the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

受新冠肺炎疫情影响,国际金融风险突增,同时其传播路径也发生了重大变化。国际风险传播路径表现出显著的中心化特征,即存在“中心溢出国→周围吸收国”的单向传播机制。“中心溢出国”之间存在显著的相互影响和交互溢出的传播机制,并形成更大的风险规模,最终对其他新兴经济体或其他发达国家输出风险。防范化解国际风险冲击必须从实时有效识别国际风险的传播链条和传播路径入手。

Affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, international financial risks have soared rapidly and their communication paths have undergone significant changes, which have the distinctive characteristic of centralization, that is, the existence of the singular communication mechanism “from central spillover countries to the surrounding absorbing countries”. The spillover countries influence and spill over each other to form larger-scale risks and finally export their risks to other emerging economies and developed countries. To resolve the impacts of international financial risks, it is essential to effectively recognize their communication chains and paths in real time.