社会技术转型路径图:汽车技术转型的动力机制研究

Socio-Technical Transformation Roadmap:Research on the power mechanism of automobile technology transformation

技术物、知识、用户倾向、法规、文化内涵、市场结构、基础设施网络等要素经过相互协调组成社会技术系统。通过对汽车代替马车的历史进程与当下内燃机车替代案例的比较,运用社会技术多层次视角理论中的分类阶段进行概念化描述,绘制出社会技术转型路径图。研究结果表明,社会群体互动中的斗争与联盟给转型带来不确定性,技术转型则蕴含在社会技术系统的主导适应与利基替代过程之中,技术转型本身并不是由偶然因素或简单线性所塑造,而是一个复杂动态过程。

The technology,knowledge,user tendencies,regulations,cultural connotations,market structure,infrastructure network and other elements are coordinated to form the socio-technical system.This paper compares the historical process of replacing horse-drawn carriages with automobiles and the current cases of replacing the internal combustion engine automobiles.It uses the framework of the phases in the multi-level perspective theory to conceptualize the description,and draws a roadmap of socio-technical transformation.The research shows that the struggles and alliances in the interaction of social groups bring uncertainty to the transformation,and technological transformation is contained in the transition between regime adaptation and niche replacement of the socio-technical system.Technological transformation itself is not shaped by accidental factors or simple linearity,but a complex dynamic process.