新冠疫情防控对大湾区高速公路运输的影响分析

Impact of COVID-19 Prevention and Control Measures on Expressway Transportation in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

在新冠疫情常态化防控背景下,我国区域性疫情频发,如何量化疫情防控措施对经济运行和客货运输的影响成为社会亟待研究的问题。为此,本文设计了高速公路运输指标计算方法,提出疫情防控措施的等级与阶段划分流程,建立双重差分模型分析疫情防控措施对高速公路运输指标的影响。本文以粤港澳大湾区主要城市为对象,基于2020年5月—2022年4月高速公路收费数据和疫情防控信息开展案例研究。研究结果表明:Ⅰ级(加强)防控措施下,客车流量显著下跌,各案例降幅在8%~27%之间,货运指标变化不明显。深圳和东莞在Ⅱ级(严格)防控阶段,客货运指标均剧烈下跌,两市客车流量分别再下降46.3%和33.7%,货车流量分别再下降42.7%和27.6%,货运量和货物周转量降幅与货车流量相当。高速公路客车市际平均运距在I级防控措施下存在下降趋势,但在Ⅱ级阶段下,客车和货车市际平均运距均显著提升。本文为城市与城市群疫情防控措施的制定与实施提供一定的参考价值。

Under the background of normalized COVID-19 prevention and control, regional epidemics occur frequently in China. How to quantify the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on economic operation and passenger and freight transportation has become an urgent problem. To this end, we design a calculation method for expressway transportation indicators, propose the level and stage division process of COVID-19 prevention and control measures, and then establish a difference-in-difference model to further analyze their impact on expressway transportation indicators. Taking major cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an example,case studies are conducted based on the expressway toll data and COVID-19 prevention and control information from May 2020 to April 2022. The results show that in the level I(strengthened) stage, the passenger vehicle flow has dropped significantly, the drop in each case is between 8% and 27%, and the freight indicators have not changed significantly. In Shenzhen and Dongguan, both passenger and freight indicators dropped sharply in the level Ⅱ(strict)stage. Passenger vehicle flow in the two cities dropped by 46.3% and 33.7%, and truck flow by 42.7% and 27.6%,respectively, and cargo and turnover decreased as much as truck flow. The average inter-city distance of expressway passenger cars has a downward trend under the level Ⅰ stage, but under the level Ⅱ stage, the average inter-city distance of passenger cars and trucks has increased significantly. This study can provide a certain reference value for the formulation and implementation of COVID-19 prevention and control measures in cities and urban agglomerations.