中国大豆进口贸易效率及潜力测算——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析

Trade Efficiency and Potential of China’s Soybean Imports——Based on the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

中国大豆进口贸易存在外贸依存度高且进口来源国高度集中的问题。本文基于随机前沿引力模型对中国大豆进口贸易效率和潜力进行测算。结果表明:中国GDP、人口数量以及进口来源国大豆产量的增加均能显著促进中国大豆进口贸易,进口来源国GDP及城镇化率、中国城镇化率、汇率水平提升均能显著抑制中国大豆进口贸易,直接进口肉类产品可减少中国大豆进口;大豆进口来源国人口数量对大豆进口贸易影响不显著,加强海运网络建设、提高投资自由度等对中国大豆进口贸易有显著的促进作用;中国大豆进口贸易效率随时间呈波动上升态势,中国与三大大豆主产国贸易效率相对较低。未来中国应进一步完善供给布局,扩大海外投资,有效防范各类风险,并努力提高国内大豆产量。

China’s soybean imports are highly dependent on foreign countries and have a single import source. Under the background of Sino-US trade conflict, there is great uncertainty in the future. Therefore, based on the stochastic frontier gravity model and the data from 2001 to 2019, this paper measures and analyzes the efficiency and potential of China’s soybean import trade. The results show that the efficiency of China’s soybean import trade shows a downward trend with time;China’s GDP,population and soybean output of source of import have a significant role in promoting China’s soybean import. The GDP and the level of urbanization of the country of source of imports, the level of urbanization in China and the exchange rate have a restraining effect on the China’s soybean import trade. The direct import of meat products can also reduce the import of soybeans.The population of source of import has no significant impact on soybean import. Secondly, economic and trade organizations,maritime network construction and investment freedom have a significant effect on China’s soybean import. In the future, China should strengthen trade cooperation among countries, participate in investment in the construction of shipping network, and pay attention to preventing financial risks.