四限政策下住宅市场价格波动研究——以武汉市为例

Research on the Price Fluctuation of Residential Market under the Four Restriction Policies——A Case of Wuhan

房价波动与经济民生密切相关,研究限购、限贷、限售和限价政策调控房价的功效性,对促进住宅市场的平稳持续健康发展具有现实意义。基于价格理论和供需理论,现运用系统动力学构建住宅市场价格波动仿真模型,以武汉市为研究区域进行政策下的模拟分析。研究结果表明武汉市住宅价格受到限购和限贷政策影响较为明显,限价政策次之,限售政策较弱;综合调控限购和限贷政策更能有效抑制房价上涨;政策施行后的效应具有滞后性,滞后时间为一年左右。

Housing price fluctuations are closely associated with the economy and people’s livelihood. It is of practical significance to study the efficacy of the policies of purchase restriction, loan restriction, sale restriction and price restriction in regulating house prices to promote the stable, sustainable and healthy development of the residential market. Based on the price theory and the theory of supply and demand, the system dynamics model is used to construct a simulation model of price fluctuations in residential market. A simulation analysis was conducted under the policy using Wuhan as an example. Results reveal that housing prices in Wuhan are more significantly affected by the purchase and loan restriction policies, followed by the price restriction policy and weaker by the sale restriction policy;comprehensive purchase and loan restriction policies are more effective in curbing rising home prices;the effect of these policies is lagging, with a lag time of about one year after implementation.