化石能源价格波动的通胀和分配效应研究——基于中国时间序列投入产出表

The Inflation and Distribution Effects of Fossil Energy Price Fluctuations:Based on the Time Series Input-Output Tables in China

能源是重要的生产原料和家庭消费品,其价格波动将通过生产网络影响各产业部门的生产成本,异质性地影响不同收入水平家庭的支出,从而影响宏观经济和社会公平。本文利用中国人民大学投入产出团队编制的时间序列投入产出表,结合月度能源价格数据和年度居民消费支出数据,定量研究了2002年1月至2018年12月国内外化石能源价格波动对中国经济的通胀和分配效应,分析了能源价格变动对于各收入组居民支出影响途径的差异。通胀效应方面,结果表明煤炭价格波动对于整体经济的影响低于油气价格波动;国内外化石能源价格变动对PPI的调整压力最大,其次是GDP平减指数,最后是CPI。对于PPI和GDP平减指数,调整压力在大部分情况下与实际价格水平变动方向一致,而对于CPI,调整压力与实际价格水平变动方向没有体现出明显的相关性。分配效应方面,能源价格变动导致的绝对支出变动与居民收入水平正相关;煤炭和油气价格波动对城镇居民福利的相对影响与居民收入分别呈负相关和正相关;化石能源价格变动对居民支出的直接影响小于间接影响。本文结论为中国的能源定价和税收补贴等政策制定提供了一定的现实依据。

Energy is important for both production and household consumption.Its price fluctuation will affect the costs of industrial sectors through the production network,and heterogeneously affect the expenditure of households with different income levels,thus affecting macro-economy and social equity.This paper uses the time series input-output tables compiled by the input-output team of Renmin University of China,combined with monthly energy price data and annual household consumption expenditure data,quantitatively studies the inflation and distribution effects of domestic and foreign fossil energy price fluctuations on China’s economy,from January 2002 to December2018.And this paper analyzes the differences in the influence ways of energy price changes on the expenditure of residents in different income groups.In terms of the inflation effects,the results show that the impact of coal price fluctuations on the economy is lower than that of oil and gas price fluctuations.The adjustment pressure of domestic and foreign fossil energy price changes on PPI is the largest,followed by GDP deflator and CPI.For PPI and GDP deflators,the adjustment pressure is consistent with the change direction of the actual price level in most cases,while for CPI,there is no obvious correlation between the adjustment pressure and the change direction of the actual price level.In terms of distribution effects,the absolute expenditure changes caused by different energy price changes increase with the increase of residents’income;the relative impact of coal(oil and gas)price fluctuations on urban residents’welfare is negatively(positively)related to their income.The direct impact of fossil energy price changes on household expenditure is less than the indirect impact.The conclusions of this paper provide a practical basis for policies on energy pricing,tax and subsidies in China.