河北省森林碳储量影响因素分析及预测

Prediction of Economic Value of Forest Carbon Sinks in Hebei Province and Analysis of Influencing Factors

森林碳汇能力在“双碳”目标实现过程中具有关键作用,森林碳储量的多少能够反应森林的碳汇能力。为识别并提升河北省森林碳汇能力,文章对河北省森林碳储量进行估算,并对其影响因素进行分析;建立GM(1,1)灰色预测模型及支持向量回归训练模型,预测河北省森林碳储量。结果表明:(1)2016年河北省碳储量及其森林碳储量达到1996年两倍以上。(2)提升河北省森林碳储量关键应从森林管理方面入手,第一产业涉林产业总产值是一个值得关注的因素。(3)2025年其碳储量达28085.11万吨,2021—2025年年平均增长率为8.34%,森林碳储量及年平均增长率均呈现增长趋势。

Forest carbon sink capacity plays a key role in the realization of the"dual carbon"goal,and the amount of forest carbon storage can reflect the forest′s carbon sink capacity.In order to identify and improve the forest carbon sink capacity in Hebei Province,this paper estimates the forest carbon storage in Hebei Province and analyzes its influencing factors;establishes a GM(1,1)gray prediction model and a support vector regression training model to predict the forest carbon storage in Hebei Province.The results show that:(1)The carbon storage and forest carbon storage in Hebei Province in 2016 was more than twice that in 1996.(2)The key to improving forest carbon storage in Hebei Province should start from forest management.In addition,the total output value of primary industry forest-related industries is a factor worthy of attention.(3)The prediction results show that its carbon storage will reach 280.8511 million tonnes in 2025,and the average annual growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be 8.34%.Both the forest carbon storage and the average annual growth rate show an increasing trend.