溃于蚁穴:战时新兴工业强国的初级产品之困

A Small Leak Sunk a Great Ship:The Primary Product's Wartime Dilemma of a New Industrial Power

国家如何应对战争时期可能出现的长期封锁?这一战争与经济的经典命题,正随着俄乌冲突而重新走入我们的视野。尤其对现代工业国家来说,虽然其先发者普遍兴起于战争与对外扩张,但在战时仍不得不改造其经济体制,调整其在和平时代的经济形态,以对抗敌国的封锁政策。在这个问题上,第一次世界大战前的德国有许多可供后人借鉴与反思之处:作为新兴工业强国,德国虽然在“一战”期对其经济体制进行了大幅改造,但最为根本性的生产能力仍为其软肋,食品与原料等初级产品仍长期依赖进口。

Germany was an emerging industrial power before World War 1,and its primary products such as food and raw materials depended on imports.During the war,Britain used its sea power to blockade Germany,obstructed the supply of primary products,hit the morale of the German people,forced Germany to carry out unrestricted submarine warfare,and accelerated Germany's defeat.Germany's wartime strait shows that the production and effective supply of primary products are still of strategic military significance to industrial powers.The strait was artificially magnified by the country's failure to be psychologically prepared before and during the war.