从长波周期角度分析黄金价格走势及未来变化

Analysis of Gold Price Trend and Future Changes from the Perspective of Long Wave Cycle

黄金是重要的贵金属,关系国家金融稳定。文章基于1945年以来黄金价格走势,研究黄金价格长波周期运行规律。以1973—2001年长达28年的黄金周期为例,分析黄金价格长周期运行特点,将一个周期划分为上升、波动、稳定和下降四个阶段。通过研究美元币值、通货膨胀、经济增长三大因素的长期变化对黄金价格走势的影响,探讨美元指数、通货膨胀率、康德拉季耶夫周期与黄金长波周期运行的内在联系。以此为基础,对2002年以来启动的新一轮黄金长波周期进行分析。

Gold is an important precious metal,which is related to national financial stability.Based on the trend of gold price since 1945,this paper studies the rule of long wave cycle of gold price.Taking the gold cycle of 28 years from 1973 to 2001 as an example,this paper analyzes the characteristics of the long cycle operation of gold price,and divides the gold cycle into four stages:rise,fluctuation,stability and decline.By studying the influence of long-term changes of the dollar value,inflation and economic growth on the gold price trend,this paper discusses the internal relationship between the dollar index,inflation rate,Kandratyev cycle and the gold long wave cycle.On this basis,the new round of gold long wave cycle started since 2002 is analyzed.