城乡养老保险一体化是否会影响农村家庭资产配置

Whether the Integration of Urban and Rural Endowment Insurance Impacts Rural Household Asset Allocation

基于中国家庭金融调查2015—2017年面板数据,使用双重差分法分析城乡养老保险一体化对农村家庭资产配置的影响及作用机制,研究发现:城乡养老保险一体化后,农村家庭配置风险资产、金融资产、生产资产等的概率显著增大,配置规模明显上升。在进行PSM-DID、安慰剂检验等稳健性检验后,结论仍然显著。异质性检验显示,城乡养老保险一体化对家庭资产配置的影响存在差异。相较于老年家庭,成年家庭更倾向于投资风险较高的资产;相较于低学历家庭,高学历的农村家庭更偏好持有较高风险的资产。机制分析发现,城乡养老保险一体化通过缓解预算约束和释放预防性储蓄两个渠道,改变了农村家庭的资产配置选择。上述发现有助于政府部门准确把握养老保险改革的方向和力度,也为优化农村家庭资产配置,促进农民收入增长提供了新的参考。

The impact and mechanism of the integration of urban and rural endowment insurance on the asset allocation of rural households was analyzed based on panel data of the China Household Finance Survey from 2015 to 2017 using the difference-in-differences(DID) method.The results showed that after said integration, the probability that rural households would increase their asset allocation to risky, financial, and production assets increased significantly as did the scale of the allocation.The conclusions remained significant after conducting robustness tests such as the PSM-DID and placebo tests.The heterogeneity test showed that there were differences in the impact of the integration of urban and rural endowment insurance on household asset allocation.Adult families tended to invest in riskier assets compared with elderly families.Highly educated rural families preferred to hold higher-risk assets compared to those with lower educational attainment.The mechanism analysis showed that the integration of urban and rural endowment insurance has changed the asset allocation choices of rural households by alleviating their budget constraints and releasing precautionary savings.The above findings can help government entities accurately grasp the direction and intensity of endowment insurance reform and provide a new reference for optimizing the asset allocation of rural households and promoting the growth of farmers’ income.