中国省际旅游产业结构优化对旅游全要素生产率的影响

The impact of the optimization of China′s provincial tourism industrial structure on tourism total factor productivity

基于2004—2018年中国30个省份(西藏及港澳台地区除外)的面板数据,采用DEA-Malmquist指数测度旅游全要素生产率,并进一步采用固定效应模型、工具变量法和系统广义矩估计等方法实证分析旅游产业结构优化对旅游全要素生产率及其分解指数的影响。研究发现:旅游全要素生产率整体呈现出波动增长的趋势,技术进步是旅游全要素生产率增长的主要驱动力;旅游产业结构优化对旅游全要素生产率具有显著的倒U型非线性影响,其中旅游产业结构高级化对旅游全要素生产率具有显著的倒U型非线性影响,而旅游产业结构合理化对旅游全要素生产率的U型非线性影响则不显著;旅游产业结构优化对技术进步具有显著的倒U型非线性影响,对技术效率和规模效率则具有显著的U型非线性影响,对纯技术效率具有显著的正向影响。据此提出,应进一步优化资源配置以发挥规模效应,立足区位优势以强化辐射效应,完善区域产业链以推进产业融合等,以期推进旅游业高质量发展。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China(except Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2004 to 2018,the DEA-Malmquist index was used to measure total factor productivity of tourism.Furthermore,the fixed effect model,instrumental variable and SYS-GMM estimation method were used to analyze the impact of tourism industrial structure optimization on tourism total factor productivity.It is found that the overall tourism total factor productivity shows a fluctuating growth trend,and technological progress is the driving force of the growth of China′s tourism total factor productivity.The optimization of tourism industrial structure has a significant reverse U-shaped nonlinear effect on tourism total factor productivity.Among them,the upgrading of tourism industrial structure has a significant reverse U-shaped nonlinear effect on tourism total factor productivity,while the rationalization of tourism industrial structure has no significant U-shaped nonlinear effect on tourism total factor productivity.The optimization of tourism industrial structure has significant reverse U-shaped nonlinear effect on technological progress,and has significant U-shaped nonlinear effect on technical efficiency and scale efficiency.In addition,the optimization of tourism industrial structure also has a significant positive effect on pure technical efficiency.Therefore,it is proposed that we should further optimize the allocation of resources,give play to the scale effect,strengthen the radiation effect of regional advantages,promote a regional industrial chain and advance industrial integration,so as to promote the high-quality development of tourism.