中国对美OFDI对母国的就业效应:创造还是替代

Creation or substitution:Estimating the effect of China’s OFDI to the U.S.on China’s labor market

本文从对外直接投资(简称OFDI)动机出发梳理了OFDI对就业的主要影响路径,提出了一种基于时变状态空间模型和投入产出模型的OFDI就业效应测算模型,利用2007-2014年中国对美国制造业OFDI和出口数据以及世界投入产出表,测算了中国对美投资的母国就业效应和机会成本.研究发现:1)中国对美国OFDI对就业人数的影响总体为创造效应,2008-2014年中国对美国制造业OFDI平均每年为中国创造就业147万人;2)投资动机层面,市场寻求型OFDI对母国就业为创造效应,资源寻求型OFDI对母国就业为替代效应;3)2012年之前中国对美国OFDI对母国就业产生的机会成本较大,资金投往国外造成了母国就业损失,但2012年后这种机会成本逐渐减小,相比国内投资,OFDI对母国就业的创造效应更强.

Starting from the motivation of outward foreign direct investment(OFDI),this paper sorts out the main influence paths of OFDI on employment,puts forward a measurement model based on timevarying state space model and input-output model,and calculates the home country employment effect and opportunity cost of China’s OFDI to the U.S.,using China’s manufacturing OFDI and export data to the U.S.from 2007 to 2014 and the world input-output table.The results show that:1) China’s OFDI to the U.S.generates an overall creation effect on employment,with an average of 1.47 million jobs offered to China each year;2) From the perspective of investment motivation,market-seeking OFDI has a creation effect on home country employment,while resource-seeking OFDI has a substitution effect on it;3) The opportunity cost of China’s OFDI to the U.S.for employment was relatively large before 2012,while after 2012,OFDI created more employment in home country compared with domestic investment.