智能化能对冲新能源汽车补贴退坡的影响吗?——基于CGE模型的分析

Can intelligentization hedge the effect of purchase subsidy decrease for new energy vehicle?Based on computable general equilibrium(CGE) approach

在新能源汽车销量“十二连跌”和“新冠”疫情的双重压力下,购置补贴退坡不得不从2020年末延缓至2022年底,与此同时,专注于智能化的车企却异军突起,那么,智能化能否对冲补贴退坡的不利影响,补贴应于何时退坡,亟待回答.通过在可计算一般均衡模型的生产函数中引入生产过程智能化因子,在效用函数中引入新能源汽车特有的使用过程智能化因子,利用宏观闭合的不同设置模拟供给约束和需求约束两种经济形势,采用中国2018年实际经济运行数据进行参数校准,探讨了补贴退坡的适宜时期以及两类智能化的对冲效应差异与作用边界.研究发现,新能源汽车补贴适宜于供给约束时期退坡,因为该时期退坡可以促进关联度较低部门的发展,并缓解收入不平等,且适度的使用过程智能化既可以对冲补贴退坡对社会福利、新能源汽车部门的不利影响,又不至于完全抵消上述正面影响.而在需求约束时期,上述正面影响均转为负面,且难以被智能化对冲.因此,新能源汽车补贴的退坡决策,应根据经济从“新冠”疫情中复苏的程度,而相机抉择.在经济快速复苏时,可通过使用过程智能化即自动驾驶的适度发展,来对冲补贴的退坡;否则,应暂缓退坡.

Because of double pressures from "twelve consecutive declines" in monthly sales year-on-year and the novel coronavirus outbreak,purchase subsidy decrease for new energy vehicle had to be postponed from the end of 2020 to 2022.However,carmakers concentrating on intelligentization were outstanding and became the center of attention.Therefore,when purchase subsidy decrease should apply for and whether intelligentization can hedge the negative effect should be answered immediately.This paper builds a computable general equilibrium(CGE) model by adding productive intelligentization factors to production function and using procedure intelligentization factors to utility function,using different macro-closure to simulate the period of insufficient supply or demand and Chinese statistical data in 2018 to calibrate parameters,to analyze the suitable situation for purchase subsidy decrease and the difference and function border of hedging between productive intelligentization and using procedure intelligentization.The results show that purchase subsidy decrease for new energy vehicle should apply for the period of insufficient supply,because it will promote the low correlation industries and decrease the income inequality,while using procedure intelligentization developed moderately can hedge the negative effects to social farewell and new energy industry caused by purchase subsidy decrease and will not over hedge the above positive effects at the same time.But in the period of insufficient demand,the above positive effects will be altered to negative and hardly be hedged by intelligentization.Therefore,the policy decision of purchase subsidy decrease for new energy vehicle should depend on the degree of economic recovery from the novel coronavirus outbreak.If economic recovery is rapid,we can develop using procedure intelligentization moderately,namely,self driving,to hedge the subsidy decrease.Otherwise,we should postpone the subsidy decrease.