共享社会经济路径下中国碳中和路径预测

China's carbon neutrality path prediction under the shared social economic paths

科学地预测和分析不同情景下中国碳中和路径有助于碳中和目标的合理推进,但当前研究仍缺少结合碳源—汇变化趋势的综合性分析与应用国际耦合模式情景的系统性分析。本文运用WITCH综合评估模型与IBIS植被动态模型模拟了各共享社会经济路径情景下21世纪中国碳源—汇路径,对中国碳中和时间及路径进行预测分析。研究发现:①中国碳汇逐年值存在3~4 a的周期性波动。RCP6.0气候情景下中国碳汇总量均值稳定在约0.30 Gt C/a;RCP2.6气候情景下中国碳汇总量均值呈下降趋势,到2065—2100年下降至约0.18 Gt C/a。②中国碳排放总量受到世界经济社会发展路径与政策强度的共同影响,在中高强度减排政策下中国碳排放均在2025—2030年达峰后呈下降趋势,其中SSP1/SSP4—高强度碳减排政策情景下碳排放在2060年降至约0.30 Gt C/a并实现碳中和目标。③基于典型碳中和情景的路径研究,实现碳中和目标应积极促进清洁能源技术进步与应用,推进非电力能源向电力能源转变,推广生物质能源及CCS技术,并积极倡导电动汽车的发展。

Scientifically predicting and analyzing China's carbon neutrality pathways under different scenarios is helpful for the reasonable advancement of carbon neutrality goals,but there has been limited comprehensive analysis that combines carbon emission-sink change trend and a systematic analysis that uses international scenarios for climate change research.Our research simulates China's carbon emission-sink paths in the 21st century under the shared social economic paths,with the usage of WITCH integrated assessment model and IBIS vegetation dynamic model.We also predict and analyze the timetable and paths of China's carbon neutralization.We find that:(1)China's carbon aggregates show that there is a 3-4 year cyclical fluctuation.Under the RCP6.0 climate scenario,China's average carbon sinks are stable at about 0.30 Gt C/a.Under the RCP2.6 climate scenario,the amount shows a downward trend,and it is predicted to drop to about 0.18 Gt C/a in 2065-2100.(2)China's carbon emissions are jointly affected by world's economic and social development path and policy intensity.Under medium or high intensity emission reduction policies,China's carbon emissions will show a downward trend after reaching the peak in 2025-2030,and under SSP1 or SSP4 with high intensity carbon emission reduction policy,carbon emissions will be reduced to about 0.30 Gt C/a in 2060 and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.(3)The research of pathways based on typical carbon neutral scenarios finds that,it is required to actively promote the progress and application of clean energy technology,the transformation of non-electric energy to electric energy,the popularity of biomass energy and CCS technology,and advocate the development of electric vehicles in order to realize carbon neutrality goals.