长三角工业经济规模与污染排放异速关系及互动机制

The allometric relationship and interactive mechanism between the size of industrial economies and the emissions of industrial pollution in the Yangtze River Delta

正确处理经济增长与环境污染关系是实现区域高质量发展和构建“双循环”新发展格局的关键问题。本文以2000—2018年长三角地区工业经济规模与工业污染指数为研究对象,构建工业经济规模—污染排放异速增长模型,分析两者关系的时空变化规律,并借助增强回归树模型探究异速增长的影响机制。结果表明:①长三角地区工业经济规模与工业污染指数空间格局具有较强的稳定性和较高的相似性,呈现出由东向西递减的空间态势;随着工业经济规模的扩大,工业污染指数总体呈下降趋势。②在纵向异速上,长三角地区总体沿着经济环境基本协调—经济扩张弱型—经济环境基本协调变化;在横向异速上,多数城市工业污染指数相对增速低于工业经济规模增速,标度指数多呈下降趋势。③城市生态基础、能源利用效率、工业发展水平、科技发展水平、对外开放水平和财政投入水平是影响异速增长的主导因子,这些因素在前期对异速增长具有正向影响,后期转变为负向影响。④经济增长的市场主导与环境保护的政府主导间的错位关系产生经济环境异速增长,并促使区域一体化出现,区域一体化与经济环境异速增长相互促进、相互影响。推动长三角地区经济生态一体化建设,实现绿水青山与金山银山的有机统一,是实现区域高质量发展的必由之路。

Clarifying the link between economic growth and environmental pollution is an essential issue to achieve regional high-quality development and establish"dual circulation"development patterns.Using the size of industrial economies and industrial pollution index in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region during 2000-2018 as the research object,this study constructs allometric growth models based on the size of industrial economies and industrial pollution index to reveal their spatio-temporal changes.We also investigate the influence mechanism of allometric growth using a boosted regression tree model.The results showed that:(1)The spatial pattern of the size of industrial economies and industrial pollution index in the study region has strong stability and high similarity,demonstrating a decreasing trend from east to west.Moreover,the industrial pollution index shows a decreasing trend with the increase in the size of industrial economies.(2)In terms of the vertical direction,the allometric growth in the YRD changes along with the pattern of the economic environment coordinated basically-the weak economic expansion-the economic environment coordinated basically.For the horizontal direction,the rate of industrial pollution index is lower than the size growth rate of the industrial economy and shows a downward trend in most of the cities.(3)Urban ecological foundation,energy efficiency,industrial development level,technological development level,opening-up level and financial investment level are the main factors affecting allometric growth,and these factors have positive impacts on allometric growth in the early stage,while turn into negative impacts during the later stage.(4)The misaligned relationship between market-driven economic growth and government-driven environmental protection induces the allometric growth of the economy and environment,and promotes regional integration.Regional integration and the allometric growth of the economic environment promote each other.Promoting economic and ecological integration in the YRD,as well as realizing the coordination of lucid waters-lush mountains and mountains of gold and silver,is the only way to accomplish regional high-quality development.