基于径流对气候变化敏感性指标的多源数据质量评估

Multi-source data quality assessment based on the index of runoff sensitivity to climate change

准确评估径流对气候变化的敏感性对水资源管理至关重要。多源气象水文数据集已被广泛应用于径流对气候变化敏感性的分析中,但目前尚无研究从径流敏感性的角度评价不同数据集。基于中国6个不同气候条件流域的实测气象水文资料,本文计算了径流对降水和潜在蒸散发变化的敏感性,并以此为基准评估4类数据集GLDAS、ISIMIP2a、ISIMIP2b、CMIP6共45套子数据集的径流敏感性模拟效果。结果表明:GLDAS数据集模拟精度较低,CMIP6、ISIMIP2a、ISIMIP2b数据集模拟精度差异较小;3套子数据集ISIMIP2a中的CLM4.0、CMIP6中的UKESM1-0-LL、MIROC6在6个流域均具有较好的径流敏感性模拟效果,可适用于不同气候条件下的径流敏感性模拟与演化趋势分析。本文研究结果可为气候变化影响下中国稀缺资料流域的径流和水资源变化预估提供参考。

Accurately assessing the sensitivity of runoff to climate change is critical for water resource management.In recent years,multi-source meteorological and hydrological datasets have been widely used in the analysis of runoff sensitivity to climate change,but no studies has evaluated different datasets from the perspective of runoff sensitivity.Based on the observed meteorological and hydrological data of six watersheds in China with different climatic conditions,the sensitivity of runoff to changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were estimated.The sensitivity index was then used as the benchmark to evaluate the simulation capability of runoff sensitivity of 45 datasets in GLDAS(Global Land Data Assimilation System),ISIMIP2a(Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2a),ISIMIP2b,CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6).The results showed that the simulation accuracy of the GLDAS dataset was low,and the simulation accuracies of CMIP6,ISIMIP2a,and ISIMIP2b datasets had little difference.For specific datasets,CLM4.0 in ISIMIP2a,UKESM1-0-LL and MIROC6 in CMIP6 had good runoff sensitivity simulation results in the six watersheds,and they can be applied to runoff sensitivity simulations under different climatic conditions.The results can provide reference for the predictions of runoff and water resources changes in watersheds with limited observation data under the influence of climate change.