“双碳”目标约束下的中国城市群高质量发展SD模型与模拟

SD Model and Simulation of High-Quality Development of China’s Urban Agglomeration under“Dual Carbon”Goals

高质量碳排放已成为未来我国经济高质量发展的重要目标之一。将碳排放和碳吸收作为主控要素嵌入系统动力学(SD)模型,构建基于“双碳”目标约束的中国城市群高质量发展SD模型,运用2019年数据和系统参数,模拟预测在基准情景和高质量发展情景下,2030年和2060年的城市群碳达峰、碳中和情况。结果表明:真实性检验证明模型模拟效果良好,具有可操作性;在基准情景下,“双碳”目标难以实现,碳排放系统濒临崩溃,但在高质量发展情景下,除中部城市群外,其他城市群均能在“十四五”规划提出的年限内实现“双碳”目标;城市群高质量发展过程中要想真正实现“双碳”目标,要明确低碳技术是重要手段,工业转型是关键,同时要实现能源和产业结构系统性变革,促进绿色经济能源使用。

The 14th five-year plan proposes to formulate an action plan for peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and anchor efforts to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.High-quality carbon emissions have become one of the important objectives of China’s high-quality economic development in the future.City is the main spatial carrier of China’s development,so high-quality carbon emission should be realized under the“two horizontal and three vertical”urbanization pattern with urban agglomeration as the core.In this regard,carbon neutrality is embedded into the system dynamics(SD)model as the main control factor,and a high-quality development SD model of China’s urban agglomeration under the“dual carbon”goals is constructed.The data and system parameters in 2019 are used to simulate and predict the carbon peak and carbon neutrality of urban agglomeration in 2030 and 2060 under different development scenarios.The results show that:(1)the authenticity test shows that the simulation effect of the model is good and operable.(2)Under the benchmark scenario,the“dual carbon”goals are difficult to achieve,and the carbon emission system is on the verge of collapse.However,under the high-quality development scenario,except for the central urban agglomeration,other urban agglomerations can achieve the“dual carbon”goals within the time limit proposed in the 14th five-year plan.(3)In order to achieve the“dual carbon”goals in the process of high-quality development of urban agglomeration,it is necessary to clarify that low-carbon technology is an important means,industrial transformation is the key,and to realize the systematic reform of energy and industrial structure.