中国省域建筑业碳锁定效应时空演进

A spatiotemporal analysis of carbon lock-in effect in China’s provincial construction industry

建筑业碳中和是实现国家碳中和进程中最重要的部分之一,因此有必要探究区域建筑业在经济发展过程中的高碳依赖规律。本文从技术、制度、经济、社会维度,基于中国30个省份2000—2018年面板数据,采用模糊集定性比较分析法,揭示了建筑业碳锁定形成机理,进而结合面板数据集合论方法,探究区域建筑业碳锁定效应的时空演进规律和高碳依赖规律。结果发现:(1)驱动建筑业碳锁定形成的6条高碳路径可归纳为制度锁定、产业锁定、技术锁定与社会锁定4种典型碳锁定类型,工业化水平提高、居民消费水平增长、城市化快速扩张及环境规制缺失是导致建筑业高碳锁定的主要驱动因素;(2)抑制建筑业碳锁定形成的4条低碳路径可总结为低城市化低创新型、高投入低创新型、高投入高创新型3种模式;(3)区域建筑业碳锁定效应具有较大的时空异质性,时间上表现为高碳锁定趋势的加深及低碳模式的瓦解,空间上不同区域之间的路径依赖存在较大差异。本文研究成果有助于在地方层面制定建筑领域的碳达峰时间图、路线图和施工图,对实现区域自主探索低碳发展路径,顺利实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。

Carbon neutrality in construction industry is one of the most important parts in the process of realizing national carbon neutrality. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the high-carbon dependency pattern of regional construction industry in the process of economic development. This study quantified carbon lock-in effect in provincial construction industry from the four dimensions of technology, environment, economy, and society. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China’s mainland from 2000 to 2018, this study examined the carbon lock-in effect in provincial construction industry by using the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis method. Furthermore,this study uncovered the spatial-temporal evolutionary process and dependence pathways of carbon lock-in in provincial construction industry by adopting the panel data set theory. The results show that:(1) The six high-carbon paths that drive carbon lock-in effect in provincial construction industry can be categorized into four typical types: Institutional lock-in, industrial lock-in,technology lock-in, and social lock-in. Improvement of industrialization level, growth of residents’ consumption, rapid expansion of urbanization, and lack of environmental regulation are the main driving factors leading to the high carbon lock-in of the construction industry.(2) The four lowcarbon paths of the construction industry can be categorized into three types: low urbanization and low innovation, high technology investment and low innovation, and high technology investment and high innovation.(3) There exists great temporal and spatial heterogeneity in the carbon lock-in effect of provincial construction industry. The carbon lock-in effect has been strengthened while the low carbon model has been weakened over time. Moreover, there are great differences in the high-carbon dependence pathways between different provinces. The results of this research are helpful for formulating the carbon peaking time map, road map, and implementation map in the construction sectors at the local level, and are of great significance for realizing the regional independent exploration of low-carbon development path and the realization of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.