环鄱阳湖县域新型城镇化对碳排放强度的空间溢出效应

Spatial spillover effect of new-type urbanization on carbon emission intensity in counties around the Poyang Lake

新型城镇化如何影响碳排放强度关系到“双碳”目标的实现与路径选择,更加关系到生态安全较为敏感的湖域地区可持续发展。以环鄱阳湖县域单元为研究对象,构造生态安全距离空间权重矩阵,采用SPDM模型实证分析2000—2019年研究区新型城镇化对碳排放强度的空间溢出效应和衰减特征。结果表明:(1)新型城镇化对降低碳排放强度存在显著的正向影响,表明推动新型城镇化建设与降低碳排放强度可以实现二者得兼;(2)新型城镇化对碳排放强度的影响呈现显著的空间溢出效应,生态安全距离是影响空间溢出效应的主要因素,但影响程度小于经济距离;(3)生态安全约束下湖域地区新型城镇化对碳排放强度的空间溢出效应呈现由近及远的“三阶段”衰减特征。由此建议因地制宜并合理定位制定新型城镇化政策,精准推进以县域为单位的新型城镇化;优化区域空间布局,完善城市群协同发展机制;推动生态振兴与新型城镇化深度融合,充分发挥地区生态优势。

The way that the new-type urbanization affects carbon emission intensity is related to the realization of the “dual carbon” goals and path selection, and more importantly, to the sustainable development of lake areas, which is sensitive in ecological security. Taking the county units around the Poyang Lake as the research object, a spatial weight matrix of ecological security distance was constructed, and the spatial panel Durbin model(SPDM) was used to empirically analyze the spatial spillover effect and attenuation characteristics of new-type urbanization on carbon emission intensity in the study area from 2000 to 2019. The results show that:(1) New-type urbanization has a significant positive impact on reducing carbon emission intensity, indicating that promoting new-type urbanization and reducing carbon emission intensity can be achieved simultaneously.(2) New-type urbanization has a significant spatial spillover effect on carbon emission intensity. The ecological safety distance is the main factor affecting the spatial spillover effect, but to a lesser extent than the economic distance.(3) Under the constraint of ecological security, the spatial spillover effect of new-type urbanization on carbon emission intensity in the lakefront region presents a“three stages”attenuation characteristic from near to far. Therefore, we recommend to formulate new-type urbanization policies in accordance with local conditions and reasonable positioning to accurately promote the new-type urbanization in county areas;optimize the regional spatial layout and improve the coordinated development mechanism of urban agglomerations;and integrate ecological revitalization with the new-type urbanization and give full play to the ecological advantages of each region.