城市生活垃圾分类政策扩散影响因素研究——基于261个地级市的事件史分析

Influencing factors of municipal solid waste classification policy diffusion:Based on event history analysis of 261 prefecture-level cities in China

厘清生活垃圾分类政策扩散的时空分布特征及其动因能够加速政策落地,进而改善城市环境治理。本文以261个地级市的生活垃圾分类政策扩散为研究对象,构建了包含问题需求、政策企业家、合法性以及能力4个维度的政策扩散影响因素模型。结果发现:(1)生活垃圾分类政策扩散在时间上呈现S型曲线样态,在空间上则凸显区域示范和邻近效应;(2)生活垃圾分类政策扩散受多重因素综合作用,同级竞争压力、财政能力、上级强制压力以及问题显著性是该政策扩散的主要动因,流于形式的政府注意力则有可能阻碍政策扩散;(3)政策扩散的影响因素存在时空差异,财政能力和上级强制压力,同级竞争压力和财政能力,以及同级竞争压力分别是2003—2011年、2012—2016年和2017—2020年时段的主要驱动因素,而促成东、中、西区域政策采纳的影响因素组合亦有所不同。因此,地方政府政策采纳应主动结合辖区治理实际“量体裁衣”;亟需发挥政府主体在政策议程设置和政策执行中的关键作用;最后还需辩证看待上级强制压力对于政策扩散的强驱动效应,辅之以激励考核机制以营造“竞相争先”的创新氛围。

Clarifying the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and causes of municipal solid waste classification policy diffusion can accelerate the policy implementation and improve urban environmental governance. This study took the municipal solid waste classification policy diffusion in 261 prefecture-level cities as the research object, and constructed a model that includes four dimensions: problem demand, policy entrepreneur, legitimacy, and capability. The study found that:(1) The diffusion of municipal solid waste classification policy presents a S-shaped curve in the temporal dimension, and shows regional demonstration and proximity effects in space.(2) The diffusion of municipal solid waste classification policy is affected by multiple factors. Peer competition pressure, financial capacity, coercive pressure from superiors, and the salience of the problem are the main driving forces for the policy diffusion, while government attention of mere formality may hinder the policy diffusion.(3) The influencing factors vary in time and space.Specifically, financial capacity and superior pressure, peer competition pressure and financial capacity, and peer competition pressure are the main driving factors in the time periods from 2003to 2011, 2012 to 2016, and 2017 to 2020 respectively. The mix of factors influencing regional policy adoption also varies between the eastern, central, and western parts of China. The lessons are as follows:(1) Local government policy adoption should take the initiative to“tailor-made”according to the actual governance of the jurisdiction.(2) It is urgent to give full play to the key role of government entities in policy agenda setting and policy implementation.(3) Finally, it is necessary to objectively assess the strong driving effect of superior coercive pressure on policy diffusion. An incentive provision and assessment mechanism should complement superior pressure to create an innovative atmosphere of“competing for the first place”.