能源消费碳排放的影响因素特征及研究展望

The characteristics and prospect of influencing factors of energy-related carbon emissions: Based on literature review

碳排放影响因素是学术圈密切关注的重要研究方向,国内外学者开展了诸多案例研究并取得了丰富成果。因研究区社会经济发展水平、资源禀赋差异,不同学者在不同区域的研究结论不尽一致,缺少系统梳理和总结。有鉴于此,梳理国内外碳排放影响因素相关文献,基于文献综述,归纳碳排放影响因素特征。结果发现:(1)碳排放影响因素具有时间效应、空间效应和空间尺度效应,即碳排放影响因素的影响程度、作用方向,随时间演变、区域差异和研究单元的空间尺度升降而发生规律性变化。(2)碳排放影响因素的时间效应、空间效应和空间尺度效应,与中国短时间尺度内经济快速发展、经济发展水平存在区域差异、以及时间和空间尺度上经济发展水平的耦合相关。(3)碳排放影响因素特征对碳排放研究需立足区域发展方向、区域分类管控和空间降尺度提出客观要求。地域功能是自然承载力、社会经济水平和发展潜力的集成表达,城市、农业、生态功能区因在国土空间开发和保护格局中功能定位不同,其产业集聚和人口分布各有其特点,带来能源消费碳排放差异。以主体功能区为抓手、开展碳排放分类管控是重要的理论和实践尝试。

The influencing factors of carbon emissions are an important research field that arouses the scholars’ concern. Scholars at home and abroad have conducted many case studies and enriched their knowledge. Due to regional heterogeneity in socio-economic development and resource endowments, the research conclusions differ among scholars’ results. There is a lack of systematic review and summary for research papers on carbon emissions. Based on the literature review, characteristics of carbon emissions influencing factors were summarized, and the results show that:(1) The influencing factors of carbon emissions have the characteristics of time effect, space effect and spatial scale effect. The influencing factors change in the degree and direction over time, region and spatial scales.(2) The time effect, space effect, and spatial scale effect of emission factors are related to the rapid economic development of China, the regional differences in economic development levels, and the coupling of economic development on temporal and spatial scales.(3) To capture the characteristics of emission drivers, future research need to be based on regional development direction, regional classification management and control, and spatial downscaling. Territorial function is the integrated expression of natural carrying capacity, socio-economic level and development potential. Due to the different functional positioning of urban, agricultural and ecological zones in the development and protection pattern of territorial space, industrial agglomeration and population distribution have their own characteristics, which lead to differences in energyrelated carbon emissions. It is an important theoretical and practical attempt to carry out classified management and control of carbon emissions with the Major Function-Oriented Zones as impetus.